不敗的魔術師

Greg Maddux is famous for his inability to hold runners on base. It's about the only thing he hasn't done well in his career, and last year the problem
extended through the entire Padres starting rotation. For instance, runners were 44 for 44 against 6'10" Chris Young.

Greg Maddux不擅長看住壘上跑者是眾所皆知的。這大慨是他的職業生涯中唯一表現比較差的部分，而上個球季這個問題延伸到教士隊整個先發輪值。例如: 跑者面對6呎10吋的Chris Young嘗試盜壘44次，也成功了44次。

It was a problem, and as the season wore on it became a huge topic for discussion in San Diego. They were stealing on Jake Peavy, and Maddux, and of course Young.

隨著球季的進行，對聖地牙哥教士隊而言，這是一個需要檢討的重大問題。Jake Peavy， Maddux還有Young都被這個問題所困擾。

So one day Maddux told Young to forget about the runners, that it wasn't the big deal everybody else was making it out to be. He told Young, "Only 17 percent of runners who steal second go on to score."

某日Maddux要Chris Young忘掉壘上的跑者，雖然大家都試著看住跑者，但是那不是一件重要的事。他告訴Young說:"只有17%盜上二壘的跑者能夠回到本壘得分。"

Maddux made another point: If opposing players have a low batting average against a pitcher—as is the case with Young—then it makes sense to go after the hitter and not worry about the runners.

Maddux提出了另一個觀點: 如果對方的打者面對投手的打擊率不高，就像打者面對Young一樣，那麼當然不需要擔心跑者，只需要專心面對打者。

The next time Young was interviewed about all those stolen bases, he said, "It's like Greg says, only 17 percent of the runners who steal second go on to score."

之後Chris Young在一次的訪問中談到被盜壘的問題，他表示:"就像Greg所說的，只有百分之十七的跑者盜上二壘後能夠回來得分。"

This 17 percent solution became something of a mantra in the second half of the season for the Padres. Why? Because Maddux said so, that's why.

這個17%的解釋在下半球季成為了教士隊的深信不疑的圭臬，為什麼呢?因為這是Maddux說的，這就是原因。

Nobody bothered to check the stats; they just repeated Maddux's assertions. When I was in San Diego last September, a savvy and wry reporter for the SanDiego Union-Tribune told me, "I've got a feeling Maddux just made up that 17 percent thing to take the heat off these guys. It gives them something to
say, and everybody just nods because it's Maddux."

沒有人費心去證實這個統計，大家只是重複Maddux的說法。去年12月當我在聖地牙哥時， 一位San Diego Union-Tribune的記者告訴我:"我的感覺是Maddux只是為了替隊友除去壓力，讓大家有理由能解釋，而隨便捏造17%這件事。大家同意這個說法，只因為是Maddux說的。"

Then a guy in San Diego who writes a blog by the name of SDPads1 decided to check it out. He went through every 2007 boxscore and discovered that slightly more than 40 percent of the base-stealers eventually scored against the Padres.

在聖地牙哥，一個撰寫SDPads1部落格的傢伙決定去驗證這個說法。他查看了2007年每一場教士隊的攻守數據，並且發現教士隊的對手中，超過40%盜上二壘的跑者最後都能得到分數。

He broke it down further and further—eliminating from the equation guys who would have scored anyway—eventually whittling the number down closer to
Maddux's estimate. But the truth was, 17 percent wasn't exactly science.

他又進一步推翻了這個說法，扣掉那些不論如何一定會得分的跑者(例如下一棒打者擊出全壘打...等等)，這個數字降低了，較為接近Maddux的估計。但是真相是，17%這個說法是沒有科學根據的。

There was no arguing about one point, though: It was classic Maddux.

但是Maddux是偉大的，這一點是毫無疑問的。

原文
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3337786

SDPads1 Blog
http://sdpads1.wordpress.com/

 

其中某位鄉民找出論證證明麥狗是對的

找了2006年的Run Expectations
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=100274

Runners    0 Out   1 Out   2 Outs Average
   100     0.92687 0.56750 0.23740 0.57726
   020     1.15435 0.73631 0.36450 0.75172
   Diff    0.22748 0.16881 0.12710 0.17446

The Great Maddux is right.

平均來講二壘有人的情況會比一壘有人多丟0.17分